Usd/try forecast: preview of cbrt rate decision

USD/TRY forecast: preview of the CBRT interest rate decision

Crispus is a financial analyst at invezz covering the equity, cryptocurrency and foreign exchange markets. He is an experienced analyst… Read more.

The USD/TRY is moving in a narrow range ahead of this week's interest rate decision by the central bank of turkey (CBRT). The turkish lira is trading at 14.60 against the U.S. Dollar, where it has been in recent weeks.

Preview of the CBRT interest rate decision

CBRT will conclude its monetary policy meeting on thursday this week. This decision comes at a time when the turkish economy is going through a difficult period, with inflation soaring and unemployment remaining at a high level.

From the data released this month, we can see that turkish inflation rose to 61.1% in march, the highest level ever recorded. Unofficial data shows that inflation has risen to over 70%. This means that the country has the highest inflation rate in the emerging markets.

The CBRT believes its policy will help bring inflation down to double digits in the coming months. This will be a difficult decision considering the bank has kept interest rates at a lower level than they were last year.

While inflation has soared, turkey's unemployment rate has fallen to around 10.7%, well below levels seen during the pandemic. Data released this week show that retail sales in turkey rose 0.5% in february, up 6.2% year over year. Industrial production also came in better than expected.

Analysts therefore expect the CBRT to leave the interest rate at 14%. It will also keep its call money and loan interest rates at 12.5% and. 15.5% left.

The decision comes at a time when other central banks have taken a more restrictive stance. The fed, the bank of england (BOE), the bank of canada and the reserve bank of new zealand (RBZ) have raised their interest rates.

USD/TRY forecast

USD/TRY

Daily chart shows turkish lira depreciating against US dollar. The pair is traded at 14.60 and is thus about 42% above the lowest level of this year. It also oscillates around the 25- and 50-day moving averages, while the average true range (ATR) and bollinger bandwith have fallen.

This signals that volatility is down. An ascending wedge pattern also formed, suggesting that the pair was likely to fall after the CBRT decision. If this is the case, the next important support level will be at 14.0.

  • USD/TRY volatility has declined ahead of the CBRT decision
  • It is expected that the CBRT will leave the interest rates unchanged
  • This pair has formed an ascending wedge pattern

The USD/TRY exchange rate moves in a narrow range ahead of this week's interest rate decision by the central bank of turkey (CBRT). The turkish lira is trading at 14.60 against the U.S. Dollar, where it has been in recent weeks.

Preview of the CBRT interest rate decision

The CBRT will conclude its monetary policy meeting on thursday of this week. The decision comes at a time when the turkish economy is going through a difficult period, with inflation soaring and the unemployment rate remaining at a high level.

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Data released this month shows that turkish inflation rose to 61.1 percent in march, the highest level ever recorded. Unofficial data show that inflation has risen to over 70%. This means that the country has the highest inflation rate in the emerging countries.

CBRT believes its policies will help bring inflation down to double digits in coming months. This will be a difficult decision, considering that the bank has kept interest rates at a lower level than last year.

While inflation has skyrocketed, the unemployment rate in turkey has dropped to about 10.7%, well below the level during the pandemic. Data released this week show that retail sales in turkey increased by 0.5% in february, up 6.2% year-on-year. Industrial production also came in better than expected.

Analysts therefore expect the CBRT to leave the key interest rate at 14%. It will also keep its overnight deposit and lending rates at 12.5% respectively. 15.5% left.

The decision comes at a time when other central banks have adopted a tighter stance. The fed, the bank of england (BOE), the bank of canada and the reserve bank of new zealand (RBZ) raised their interest rates.

USD/TRY forecast

USD/TRY

The daily chart shows that the turkish lira is depreciating against the U.S. Dollar. The pair is trading at 14.60, up about 42% from this year's lowest level. It also oscillates around the 25- and 50-day moving averages, while the average true range (ATR) and the bollinger bandwith have fallen.

This signals that volatility has decreased. An ascending wedge pattern has also formed, indicating that the pair is likely to fall following the CBRT decision. Should this be the case, the next important support level will be at 14.0.

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